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Risk models (engineering index)

Bands are consistent across models:

  • low: [0, 25)
  • moderate: [25, 50)
  • high: [50, 75)
  • severe: [75, 100]

v1

Legacy composite from fire counts/FRP and geography-linked AQ averages.

v2

Spatial signal: fires inside polygon vs nearby radius (SMOKE_RISK_NEARBY_KM), max FRP, AQ averages, recency. Stores explanation JSONB.

v3

Blends v2 base with wind_v1 plume exposure component.

v4

Uses wind_grid_v2 plume when grid weather is available; humidity dampening from matched grid cells. Requires grid pipeline populated.

v5

Blends base signals with plume + optional gaussian_v0 dispersion proxy + capped humidity dampening — configuration-dependent.

Plume models

  • wind_v1: station-wind corridor heuristic.
  • wind_grid_v2: prefers matched grid wind.

Not atmospheric CFD or regulatory dispersion.

gaussian_v0 (dispersion proxy)

A bounded Gaussian-style kernel along/adjacent to the downwind axis over census targets — not HYSPLIT, not EPA-grade dispersion, not a health model. Compare only as an engineering heuristic alongside plume corridors.

Configure via DISPERSION_* variables. See .env.example.