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10-year roadmap

Hub: Planning framework

Phase map (0–4)

Phase Name Rough years* Purpose
0 Immediate / no-regret groundwork 0–6 mo Stop bleeding; clarify use; cheap wins only
1 Low-cost proof + land intelligence 6 mo–2 yr Know carrying capacity, water, markets; pilot telemetry
2 First real operating business Yr 2–4 Owned grazing or contract stack + positive operating cadence
3 Scale-up + optimization Yr 4–7 Grow margin or add second stream under labor cap
4 Salary-replacement architecture Yr 7–10 Farm cash approaches household need; off-farm ramp-down if chosen

*Calendar slips are normal—gates matter, not calendar fantasy.

Phase 0 — immediate / no-regret groundwork

Deliverable Done when
Written stop rules Vision signed
Boundary + access docs Deed, road agreement, gates IDs
Financial baseline 12-mo household + farm ledger pattern
Comms Phones, offline maps of 120
Field verification plan Field verification program — Phase 0–1 scheduled against V* / G* items (Integration audit (2026-04))

Phase 1 — low-cost proof and land intelligence

Deliverable Done when
Soil / forage recon Samples or consult + photos
Water points inventoried Flow, winter behavior known enough to plan
Market probe Auction attendance or buyer calls
Lease option Comps or signed pilot lease
Telemetry pilot One green path home → field
Parcel / utility baselines Measured or honestly deferred rows in Claxton and Demory — missing data register plus field program sections executed or ticketed

Gate to Phase 2: Go on grazing scale OR explicit pivot to more lease / less owned stock—only in production posture when Execution gates — Phase 0–1 composite and Validation backlog G1 are both satisfied (or written waive names deferred EG bars).

Phase 2 — first real operating business

Deliverable Done when
Fence + water MVP Matches stocking plan
Livestock or contract revenue First sales recorded
Records in SoR Assets + events in farmOS-class or chosen stack
Weekly rhythm Documented + followed 8 weeks

Phase 3 — scale-up and optimization

Deliverable Done when
Margin proof Trailing 12-mo contribution margin positive after labor charge
Automation OPEX review Cut or justify each subscription
Optional second stream Only if labor test passed

Phase 4 — salary-replacement architecture

Deliverable Done when
Household cash from farm ≥ target % for N years
Resilience package Reserve months; insurance review; debt comfort
Role decisions Who full-time farm vs off-farm if any

Known facts

ID Fact
K1 10-year horizon stated

Assumptions

ID Assumption
A1 Phases overlap slightly—gates are crisp even if dates blur

Open questions

ID Question
Q1 Target year for Phase 4 if all gates green?
Q2 Exit strategy (sell land / lease out ) if Phase 2 fails?