Revenue milestone model — supplemental income to salary replacement¶

Purpose¶

Translate the business plan’s economic arc into fillable milestones and explicit formulas for pass/fail: supplemental cash first, then positive contribution margin, then material farm net after labor charge, then a salary-replacement band—without inventing your household budget.

Pairs with: East Tennessee two-site farm business plan — revenue model and milestones. Phase financial gates (consolidated): Execution gates — financial thresholds.

Financial layer links: Enterprise unit economics — worksheet methodology, Farm accounting baseline, CAPEX, OPEX, and enterprise sequencing.

Required inputs (must exist before claiming any milestone)¶

Input	Symbol	Description
Household cash need	`HH_NEED`	Annual household cash from all sources—placeholder until family finance work; may be range `HH_LOW`–`HH_HIGH`
Farm share target	`FARM_SHARE_TARGET`	Share of `HH_NEED` for replacement narrative—% (e.g. `0.50`–`0.90`)
Off-farm cash + benefits	`OFFFARM`	Annual off-farm wages + benefits imputation if quitting is in scope
Contribution margin (farm)	`CONTRIB_MARGIN_Y`	For calendar year Y: revenue − variable costs (per accounting baseline—same story as management P&L)
Farm cash to household	`FARM_CASH_TO_HH_Y`	Cash actually available to household after debt service, owner draw policy, and WC—define once in a footnote
Family labor shadow band	`SHADOW_LOW`, `SHADOW_HIGH`	$/hr for opportunity-cost charge in M3—never a single point without range
Scenario	`S1`, `S2`, …	Enterprise mix—milestones may differ by scenario
Split-site + automation	—	Telemetry OPEX and extra miles in CONTRIB_MARGIN path—must not vanish

Milestone formulas (explicit)¶

Let Y = calendar year. All comparisons use filled placeholders—no wiki defaults.

ID	Milestone	Formula / condition	Pass when
M0	Baseline	Ledger exists	M0 = Y iff 12-mo household + farm cash tracking exists
M1	Supplemental	`FARM_CASH_TO_HH_Y ≥ TH_M1` or `FARM_CASH_TO_HH_Y ≥ ρ_M1 × HH_NEED`	ρ_M1, `TH_M1` filled; evidence: bank categorization
M2	Positive operating	`CONTRIB_MARGIN_Y > 0`	Strict inequality—zero is fail unless documented subsidy row (see bridge)
M3	Material after labor charge	`FARM_NET_Y − L_CHRG_Y ≥ TH_M3` where `L_CHRG_Y = H_FAM_Y × σ` with `σ ∈ [SHADOW_LOW, SHADOW_HIGH]`	Sensitivity table required—two columns min
M4	Salary band	`FARM_CASH_TO_HH ≥ FARM_SHARE_TARGET × HH_NEED` for each of `N_M4` consecutive calendar years	N_M4 filled; evidence calendar unless fiscal documented

Notation: TH_* = threshold $; ρ_* = fraction of HH_NEED.

No-salary-claim rule (hard)¶

Do not state or imply salary replacement, quit your job, or farm supports household at replacement level in executive summary, lender decks, or public narrative until Fin-G(3→4) PASS per Execution gates — financial thresholds and M4 row evidence complete.
Allowed before that: side income, learning, supplemental, pilot, pre-revenue—with dates.
Remediation alignment: see Remediation backlog salary narrative weakness.

Bridge-year logic (anti-optimism)¶

Definition: Year Y is a bridge year iff:

(OFFFARM_Y + FARM_CASH_TO_HH_Y) < HH_NEED and the family documents an explicit subsidy or off-farm plan (savings draw, spousal income, dated end of subsidy).

Rules:

Rule	Statement
B1	Bridge years must appear in the bridge table below—hidden subsidy fails Fin-G(1→2)
B2	Maximum consecutive bridge years without M2 pass: `BRIDGE_MAX` (placeholder)—exceeding triggers scale freeze review
B3	If M2 fails two consecutive years—freeze scale per `Vision` stop rules and branching in `Recommended enterprise strategy`

Formula (subsidy end): If using explicit subsidy instead of M2, document T_SUBSIDY_END; Fin-G(2→3) requires either M2 or subsidy ended with replacement path.

Phase advance — revenue side (crosswalk)¶

Phase transition	Revenue milestone / financial gate
0 → 1	M0 + Fin-G(0→1) inputs
1 → 2	M1 target in progress + Fin-G(1→2) (includes G1)
2 → 3	M2 or bridge with end date + Fin-G(2→3) (G2)
3 → 4	M3 inputs minimum + M4 for narrative + Fin-G(3→4) (G3)

Full criteria: Execution gates — financial thresholds.

Outputs supported¶

Output	Decision
M0–M4 pass/fail	When to claim supplemental vs replacement
Bridge years	Explicit years where farm subsidizes learning
Scale freeze	Tie to negative trailing margin—`remediation backlog`
Evidence list	Bank, P&L, tax, sale bills per milestone

Assumptions¶

Assumption	Note
Milestones are scenario-aware	If S2 replaces S1, restate targets
Low-labor priority	Milestone can pass on revenue but fail on labor—track both if policy requires
Automation	Net family hours: field − efficiency + triage—`Instrumentation ROI model`
Two sites	All-in channel cost in evidence—haul included

Placeholder registry (fill with evidence—not wiki guesses)¶

Term	Definition
`HH_NEED`	`$___` — refresh annually
`FARM_SHARE_TARGET`	`___` (fraction)
`OFFFARM`	`$___/yr` + benefits note
`TH_M1`, `ρ_M1`	$ or fraction for M1
`TH_M3`	$ for material supplement
`N_M4`	Consecutive years for M4
`BRIDGE_MAX`	Integer
`CONTRIB_MARGIN`	Same as accounting baseline variable definition

Milestone ladder (evidence columns)¶

ID	Milestone	Metric	Target (placeholder)	Evidence	Phase
M0	Baseline	Ledger exists	Y/N	Spreadsheet export	0
M1	Supplemental	`FARM_CASH_TO_HH`	`TH_M1` or `ρ_M1 × HH_NEED`	Bank	1–2
M2	Positive operating	`CONTRIB_MARGIN_Y`	> 0	Management P&L	2
M3	After labor charge	`FARM_NET − L_CHRG`	`≥ TH_M3`	Worksheet + log	3
M4	Salary band	`FARM_CASH_TO_HH`	`≥ FARM_SHARE_TARGET × HH_NEED` × N_M4 years	Bank + books	4

Bridge years (explicit)¶

Calendar year	Scenario	Farm cash to HH	Off-farm	Combined vs `HH_NEED`	Subsidy / notes

Revenue stream mix (by phase — edit)¶

Phase	Primary streams (plan default)	Share of farm cash (est %)	Uncertainty flag
0–1	Lease / none / costs only
2	Grazing sales ± lease
3	+ scale or second stream
4	+ direct or value-add optional

Branching logic¶

If…	Then…
M2 missed 2 years	Freeze scale—`Recommended enterprise strategy`
M4 met but off-farm needed for health insurance	Do not claim full replacement—adjust milestone
Enterprise mix changes	Re-baseline M1–M4
Trailing margin negative	Scale freeze—`remediation backlog` §13

Known / assumed / open¶

Class	Content
Known	Side business profit intent; 10-year horizon
Assumed	`HH_NEED` stable enough to plan—revisit yearly
Open	Benefits replacement cost; live scenario ID