East Tennessee two-site farm business plan — planning framework¶

Package navigation (reading order): East Tennessee two-site farm business plan (package)

Purpose of this framework¶

This wiki holds a decision-grade, phased business plan for a future operation with:

The framework (this page) defines what pages exist, in what order to build them, how candidate 120-acre enterprises will be compared without premature commitment, and what is known vs assumed vs unknown. Later edits fill the child pages with numbers, scenarios, and decisions.

Non-goals: Single-enterprise prescription before validation; lifestyle branding; optimism without maintenance and degraded-mode costs.

Authority & evidence (execution): Which pages are canonical vs supporting, and which ingested sources back TN / federal operational claims—Evidence grade and canonical authority, Execution readiness gap audit, Authoritative execution evidence cluster.

Package of wiki pages (tree)¶

All paths under wiki/analyses/, kebab-case.

Package coverage: executive summary, vision/objectives/constraints, two-site operating model, enterprise options, recommended strategy, smart-tech, labor/rhythm, capital/infrastructure, revenue/milestones, risk+mitigation, 10-year roadmap (Phases 0–4), validation backlog.

Operational artifacts (execution layer — fillable tables)¶

Financial planning layer (worksheets — evidence fills blanks)¶

Business shell — Tennessee + federal compliance (entity / tax / property / insurance / labor / BOI)¶

Smart-farm architecture package (supports the business plan)¶

Order of creation (why)¶

1. Vision + constraints — Without stop rules and capital ceiling, enterprise scoring is meaningless.
2. Two-site operating context — Travel time and “where the brain lives” drive OPEX, batching, and automation placement before enterprise choice.
3. Enterprise options — Full scenario matrix; compares mixes.
4. Recommended strategy — Commits to strategy family (not a single commodity); branching logic.
5. Labor / family — Weekly rhythm, feasibility filter.
6. Smart-tech strategy — Automate what when; degraded modes.
7. Capital + financing — Infrastructure sequence + debt cautions.
8. Revenue + milestones — Tranches + measurable gates.
9. Risk register — Mitigations tied to phases.
10. 10-year roadmap — Phases 0–4.
11. Validation backlog — Research tasks + G1 etc.
12. Executive summary — Distilled map (update when children change).

Decision framework — comparing candidate enterprise paths (120 acres)¶

Use this before treating any single enterprise as the plan.

Step A — Generate candidates¶

Explicit strategies (not single commodities), e.g.:

• Grazing-led (stocking + forage math)
• Row-crop / commodity (equipment + scale + weather)
• Specialty crop (labor spike + marketing)
• Agritourism / events (lodging or day-use; regulatory surface)
• Mixed rotation (complexity vs resilience)
• Timber / long-rotation (cash timing vs liquidity)

Each candidate must state primary revenue, secondary revenue, and what stays off the 120 (homestead role clear).

Step B — Feasibility gates (kill / defer)¶

Step C — Score (rubric below)¶

Normalize scores 1–5 per dimension (higher = better for that row’s “good direction”; see rubric notes). Compute tier composites, then weighted objective (profit emphasis).

Step D — Sensitivity¶

On top 2–3 drivers (usually price, yield, labor hours, capital), run ±20% scenarios; mark fragile vs robust strategies.

Step E — Phasing and optionality¶

Split actions into:

• Reversible / cheap — preserve multiple enterprise paths
• Irreversible / expensive — require explicit gate and date

Document pivot triggers (metrics + dates) in roadmap and validation backlog.

Weighted evaluation rubric¶

Objective hierarchy (explicit weights)¶

Composite (0–5 scale recommended for each tier):

Score = 0.45 × Tier1 + 0.35 × Tier2 + 0.20 × Tier3

Each tier is built from the dimension groups below (average or weighted average inside tier — document choice per candidate).

Dimension table (candidate enterprise strategy × score)¶

Score each dimension 1–5. Direction: 5 = best for a commercially serious, automation-leaning family operation unless noted.

Mapping dimensions → tiers (default)¶

Remote-site fit (Fit — 35-minute remote site): apply as multiplier (0.85–1.00) on Tier 2 or fold into Tier 2 average — pick one method and hold constant across candidates.

Decision rule (skeleton)¶

• Shortlist candidates with composite ≥ threshold T (set after first pass with real numbers).
• Disqualify any candidate failing a hard gate (legal, water, uninsurable exposure).
• Prefer candidates that stay viable under pessimistic Tier-1 sensitivity before optimistic scaling.

Known facts (baseline — edit only when reality changes)¶

Critical unknowns (must stay variable in the plan)¶

Assumptions (explicit — validate and replace with facts)¶

What must be decided before major irreversible spend¶

Topic hub (navigation)¶

• Two-site smart farm operations — hub-and-spoke index for this business plan cluster

Links to existing vault spine¶

• Dual-site operations model — non-agritourism
• Reference architecture — 5-acre home base + 120-acre farm — Smart-farm architecture package hub (SoR, security, instrumentation order, degraded modes)
• Field telemetry reference architecture — homestead + 120-acre farm
• Farm spatial model and asset registry standard
• CAPEX, OPEX, and enterprise sequencing — two-site constraint
• Business viability and farm economics — gap analysis
• Strategic audit — decision-safe operations
• Hostile internal review — Skeptical critique, revised implementation order, do not finance yet list
• Business plan remediation backlog — Weakness→fix matrix, decision controls, P0/P1/P2 validation checklist
• Business plan source-ingest campaign — East Tennessee two-site — Extension/NRCS/market/insurance priorities; proposed source-note titles; raw vs synthesis rules
• Execution dossier — Phase 0–1 (hub) — Practical first 24 months: memo, 90d/12m/24m, master checklist; start here for field execution
• Business plan integration revision audit (2026-04) — Ledger of doctrine/evidence → plan binding for this package (no parallel plan)
• Field verification program — Phase 0–1 (Claxton and Demory) — Structured site work tied to V* / G* gates
• Execution gates — Phase 0–1 (East Tennessee two-site) — EG domain pass/fail; pilot vs production; ties to G1 honesty
• Kubernetes platform backup/DR — Pi k3s Longhorn · Backup / DR doctrine hub — When control-center stack is real, backup/restore is not optional
• Observability, secrets, and trust bar — homelab / farm edge — Remote trust minimums vs dashboards
• Validation and pilot plan — first 24 months (East Tennessee two-site) — Validation matrix, pilot program (land, infra, business, telemetry, labor), phase gates, cheap proofs, T0 calendar; checklists
• Business plan wiki — Git-friendly execution sequence — How to merge the plan work in coherent PRs (navigation first, meta after core)
• Comparisons: LoRaWAN vs Meshtastic, farmOS vs lightweight, own vs hire, fixed vs mobile gateway

Status¶

Update this table when pages change materially.